In the first month of 2022, the Russian currency showed the worst result since 2015, falling to almost 80 rubles per dollar. But in the last days of the month, the rate will stabilize in 77-78 rubles per “American”.
What awaits the ruble in February and what will determine its rate, said Valery Korneichuk, associate professor and professor at the Department of Financial Management at the Higher School of Financial Management, in told Rossiyskaya Gazeta:
– The geopolitical environment will remain uncertain and subject to great fragmentation. However, the long discussion of sanctions against Russia is over. The US Department of State is considering not revealing the details of the sanctions that have already been imposed, so that Russia cannot prepare for them. The market reaction to this was very calm.
The behavior of the Russian currency in February will be determined by two parties.
The first group has the best results:
– Russia has large gold reserves and foreign exchange reserves of 639.6 billion dollars.
– Good foreign trade, high international prices for metals, fertilizers, oil.
– Oil prices up to 89 dollars per barrel. And it is likely that, at the next meeting, OPEC + will maintain the maximum daily oil production;
– The Bank of Russia raised the key rate to 9% at the February meeting;
– Settlement period for tax payments for VAT, income tax, mineral extraction tax and special taxes for January this year.
The second group deals with evil:
– The complex epidemic situation caused by the spread of the new coronavirus in Russia, Europe and America;
– The Fed announced plans to reduce the amount of assets purchased and raise the key rate in March of this year;
– Fall in the participation of foreign investors in OFZ. On January 28, it was down to 18.8%;
– News “surprise” due to the nature of the new American and European sanctions. Russia will retaliate against British companies if Britain imposes new sanctions.
What is the ruble exchange rate in February?
Based on the analysis, we can expect that, as the geopolitical tensions will decrease, the dollar price will change in February in 75-77 rubles. The euro exchange rate is in the range of 85-87 rubles.
If the sanctions are imposed, the dollar exchange rate will increase to 90 rubles per dollar or more (the amount of the dollar grew in 2016 to 86 rubles), and the euro exchange rate – including 100 rubles (repeat of 2014). sign). However, we believe this scenario is unlikely.
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