Bone in the throat of Russia: why the reconciliation of Moscow and Washington will be a disaster for the Baltic countries

Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia have become “the Western version of the border with the Russian aggressor”.

Photo: Shutterstock

The result of geopolitical, military and propaganda interests related to Russia’s demands on the West for security guarantees will completely reshape the current world order. What the new global security architecture will look like is an open question. In addition, it may be inevitable that a local conflict will reveal the strengths and weaknesses of the parties.

It is possible to estimate how the new classification will affect East-West relations at the regional level. Regional actors, for example, the Baltic states, act as instruments in international politics to secure the interests of the United States. That is, his work – “a bone in Russia’s throat”, in the words of the head of the analysis company Stratfor George Friedman – is in demand and well paid when the Americans need it. What if, to the fear of the Russophobic national leaders in the Baltics, it ends up being relevant during the process between Moscow and Washington?

They will not reach Finland

However, in order to consider that situation, it is appropriate to remember how Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia are now in their position as “pillars of the West on the but by the Russian enemy.” What would have happened to the Baltic countries in the past if they had not chosen to be hostile to Russia? KP tried to understand this with the help of political scientist Alexander Nosovich.

Political scientist Alexander Nosovich.

Photo: from personal facebook page

– The only exception to the situation of the debate is “Finlandization”, that is, following the Finnish model in relations with the West and Moscow after the Second World War. After the war, all of Finland was integrated into the Western world, but did not join NATO and became a neutral country. It has become a kind of “geopolitical bridge” between the Eastern and Western blocs. After 1991, the Balts were given, in fact, the same model: to become an intermediary in the process of integrating Russia with the West and to earn money by acquiring Western companies (majority of the market) and protection of Russian resources.

There is no third situation for the Baltic states, but the conflict with Russia and good relations with it, Nosovich said.

– The statements of the local politicians that Russia is trying to return their countries as their former imperial borders to its creation are the results of painful ambitions and megalomania. For Russia, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia, which managed its integration with the West, until President Putin’s speech in Munich in 2007, was of strategic interest. These countries were not supposed to participate in Russia’s integration programs in the post-Soviet space, it was understood that the Baltic countries were a cut-off point for him, and of course he did not want it. The only thing that matters to these countries in Moscow’s eyes is their membership in NATO, which poses a threat to military security. Russia was willing to pay a high price for the Baltic states to remain neutral. In this case, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania could follow the path of Finland after the war. But its politicians chose (to allow this choice in the US) a war strategy. Therefore, 30 years after the “restoration of independence”, the Baltic countries are far behind Finland in terms of material goods.

doomed to fail

– What will happen to the Baltic states if Russia, which does not agree with the West, enters into an open and very hostile war with it?

– In this case, the front lines on the borders of Russia and NATO will be the main victims of the war. This is also understood in the West: the former is derived from American political and military analysis. Whoever wins the power struggle between the West and Russia, the Baltic states will lose out. For the member of NATO, the Baltic countries are also like “the West”, but it is clear that when we talk about the military conflict with it, it means the United States, outside and there are places in the theater of a There are few regional military conflicts with Russia in Eastern Europe. The Baltic countries are another issue: if there is a regional threat on their territory, regardless of whether NATO wins or loses, their territory will lose the strength of today’s weapons.

And if we agree…

– What might be the future of the Baltic states if the United States accepts our demands for security in one form or another and the current crisis calms down?

– Russia’s security demands should be widely understood. Not to mention the West is trying to reduce these demands and the concept of “Russian invasion of Ukraine”, for the Baltic countries, there is more than a written guarantee not to place the machines NATO up. its territory. Changing the strategic foundations of US-Russian relations. Today, these bases are the US that “won the Cold War”, and the whole of Europe up to the border of Russia, so it is their right geopolitical symbol, which they protect from the much of Russia’s existence through the policy of “suppression”. Its main element is the existence of a “cordon sanitaire” in the western border of Russia: a chain of Russophobic powers in the Baltic and Black Seas that pursue an anti-Russian policy in the policies strange.

Without external support and order for the anti-Russian actions of the United States, these measures cannot be published, Alexander Nosovich continued.

– What in Ukraine, what in the Baltic States. Your internal resource base is too weak. Including – for public support. For example, in Lithuania, the policy of the Conservative Party is supported by 10% of the population, and the approval rating of the head of the Lithuanian Ministry of Municipality, a Russophobe Landsbergis, is 3%. Ordinary Lithuanians are common sense people, and they see their country’s policy as delusional and pure madness. Only Lithuania will lose from this policy, as its Foreign Minister says that, contrary to common opinion, he decided to stop the transfer of Belarusian potash fertilizers, because it will disappear thousands of Lithuanians at Klaipeda port and railway. The actions, but the “Lukashenko regime”, the friend of Russia, will be punished …

Clearly this is nonsense. However, for many years the Lithuanian government has been involved in stupid activities and opposition, because its enthusiasm is fed from outside to “there” Russia. If the foundations of the American policy in Europe are renewed, the Baltic politicians will turn their heads, because they can only rely on each other for survival, and normal relations and relations with stay close to Russia and the interests of Estonia and Latvia will be satisfied. and Lithuania. They will no longer be a “geopolitical bridge” (because Russia no longer needs them) and they will never rise above the heights of the Scandinavians. But the threat of physical destruction of their territory due to the conflict between Russia and NATO in the Baltic will not hang over them, the expert said.

The end of the “Russophobic dish”?

Summary. The Balts can get “Russophobic dishes” only in terms of hatred between Russia and the United States (which leads the whole West). Its entry into NATO is part of a strategy created by the Americans to generate and complicate the conflict with Russia. The stronger the threat, the better for the Balts, because their Russophobia is more expensive. Therefore, a possible agreement between Moscow and Washington, able to eliminate the pseudo-strategic importance of the Baltic States for the “protection of the free world”, for them all collapse. The new world order, which will eliminate the “spear” job, is a real dream. And they will fight him until the end.

One explanation: if there is a tectonic shift in security policy, no one will question the Baltic states. And no one will listen to your criticism. Finally they have a chance to think more about themselves. Honestly, there is doubt that they will use it.


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